A survey conducted among around 500 people by the SOUTH INDIAN VOICE website and weekly magazine in the Madurantakam Assembly constituency indicates that the core vote bases of leaders including DMK President M. K. Stalin, AIADMK General Secretary Edappadi K. Palaniswami and Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi (VCK) leader Thol. Thirumavalavan have largely remained intact. A notable aspect of the survey is that actor Vijay appears to have only around 6 % personal influence among the respondents, which is a significant finding. This can be considered an important indicator in understanding the current political situation in the Madurantakam constituency.
In terms of the overall percentage, M. K. Stalin stands first with 39.3%support. Despite the various challenges faced by his party, Edappadi K. Palaniswami remains strong in second place with 30.7 % support. Despite various controversies and opposing views, the survey clearly indicates that Thirumavalavan continues to retain his support in areas with a significant Dalit population. With an overall support of 10.67%Thirumavalavan continues to be seen as a leading political figure among Dalit voters. The survey also reflects that actor Vijay remains behind the VCK, DMK and AIADMK in Dalit-dominated areas. Thirumavalavan is in third place with around four percentage points more support than Vijay, according to the survey.
Anbumani Ramadoss, who is not contesting the election, was neither included in the questions nor considered as an individual factor in this survey. However, in areas with a significant Vanniyar population, opposition to Thirumavalavan appears to be deeply rooted among Anbumani’s supporters. At the same time, since the VCK is part of the TVK alliance, a section of voters in these areas appears to have a pro-DMK inclination, extending beyond their support for Thirumavalavan personally. Meanwhile, the decision of MDMK’s second-rung leader Mallai Sathya to support the DMK is also being viewed as a factor that could provide additional support to the DMK among younger voters.
The survey strongly indicates that, apart from Dalit and Vanniyar voters, a significant section of voters from other communities appears to have a favourable inclination towards the DMK. The ground situation appears to show stronger DMK support in Karunguzhi and Madurantakam, while the AIADMK appears to be stronger in the Acharapakkam area. However, one of the significant findings is that the ruling Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) does not appear to have a strong grassroots support base in any particular part of the constituency. With the party’s organisational structure yet to become fully established, the survey’s ground-level assessment suggests that TVK is still facing criticism of being more of a “letter-pad party” than an established political organisation.
According to the present survey figures, M. K. Stalin has 39.3 % Edappadi K. Palaniswami 30.7 % Thirumavalavan 10.67 %and actor Vijay 6.01 per cent personal influence among the respondents. The presence of the VCK in the alliance is expected to provide the alliance with some additional votes, according to the ground-level assessment. Similarly, even if TVK gains an additional 3 to 5%points through last-minute campaigning, alleged cash distribution and the use of ruling-party influence, the survey does not indicate that the party currently has sufficient support to reach second place. Political developments, changes in alliances and campaign activities before the election could alter the vote pattern. Nevertheless, according to the present ground situation reflected in this survey, TVK would have to make an exceptionally difficult effort even to reach second place, and the possibility appears limited.
“Perhaps the only way for Vijay to prevent his carefully created image from being damaged is the ‘election-stopping’ technique of his ideological opponents. Let us wait and see what happens…”
