In the last Assembly election, Maragatham Kumaravel, who contested as the AIADMK candidate in the Madurantakam constituency, shocked the people of Madurantakam even before the ink on their fingers had dried. There is no denying that her resignation as a Member of the Legislative Assembly and subsequent move to TVK shocked the entire state of Tamil Nadu. Various sections of society, including the general public, began criticising it as a political disgrace unlike anything Tamil Nadu had witnessed before. What the BJP does in the northern states was done by actor Vijay within just two years of launching his party, which created a sense of discomfort, resentment and shock among the people.
The Election Commission announced elections in only two of the seven constituencies. It is also noteworthy that both of these are reserved constituencies. This election will certainly reveal the overall influence of the Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi (VCK) and actor Vijay among the Dalit communities. VCK leader Thol. Thirumavalavan has emerged as a major leader among oppressed communities, with people from oppressed social groups rallying behind him beyond party boundaries, and the party has a 30-year history. However, the fact that he has supported actor Vijay in this by-election despite various criticisms has also raised questions about the political perception of him.
Although the VCK is not particularly strong in the Dharapuram constituency, in the Madurantakam constituency, when it was part of the People’s Welfare Alliance, the Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam (DMDK) secured 11,000 votes. Even if we assume that a majority of these votes were VCK votes, we can take into account that around 10,000 votes are firmly with the VCK movement. However, since the VCK is now part of the TVK alliance, the ground situation indicates that there is some doubt as to whether votes from other communities will go to Vijay’s party.
Whether the votes secured by actor Vijay’s party in the 2026 Assembly election will fall in the same way this time is also questionable. Although ministers and other functionaries are engaged in campaigning, TVK continues to remain a constituency with virtually no party organisational structure even in Madurantakam, which is located close to Chennai. This is indeed a pathetic situation. Looking at the current ground situation, questions are also being raised as to how actor Vijay’s party managed to secure more than 40,000 votes in the 2026 Assembly election itself.
When a party that secured more than 40,000 votes is struggling in a by-election, it is impossible to avoid various doubts about the electoral process itself. Questions are also being raised as to whether an illusion was created that the votes for actor Vijay’s party were spontaneous votes for change, without considering caste or religion. When a party that secured more than 40,000 votes is driven away by the people within three months, it itself raises doubts about the votes it received. This is exactly what the current ground situation is also firmly indicating. The present ground situation suggests that the party has to make a tremendous effort even to secure around 20,000 votes.
Under the present circumstances, the situation reflects that the DMK is moving far ahead in the field with its established vote base. The AIADMK is also competing with the DMK without falling behind. The contest appears to be between the DMK and the AIADMK. If TVK secures more than 20,000 votes, it would certainly be recorded as a major achievement in the political history of Tamil Nadu. Overall, there is absolutely no doubt that the image of actor Vijay’s party as the ruling party will be shattered in this election.
